거시경제 상황

연속되는 경제 전망치 하향 조정

-2014년 3월 10일 발표된 2013년 10-12월의 실질 GDP 성장율 (2차 예비수치)는 연평균 0.7%였다.(분기별, 계절 조정후) 이는 과거예측보다 낮아졌기 때문에, 리서치 기관들이 연속적으로 2013년 및 2014년 GDP 성장률 예측을 하향 조정하였다.

-10-12월 실질 GDP 기여도에 따르면, 국내 수요는 +0.7% 성장으로 기대를 대체로 충족시킨 반면, 해외 수요는 7-9월 -0.5%를 보인 것처럼 마이너스 성장을 보였다. 기대된 대로, 국내 수요는 증가세를 나타내었다. 예를 들어, 민간 기업의 자본 투자는 +5.3%(분기별, 연평균) 증가하였으며, 민간 최종 소비지출은 +2.0%(분기별, 연평균) 증가하였다.

-이번 분기 수치의 예상치 못한 요소는 해외 수요 약세였다. 상품 및 서비스 수출이 +1.7%로 반등했지만, 강세가 두드러지지 못했다. 반면, 수입은 +14.7%로 상당히 증가되었다. 엔화 약세가 1년 정도 계속 되었음에도 불구하고, 수출의 성장세가 약하다는 것은 우려되는 점이다. 이에 대해 가능한 원인으로 다음을 들 수 있다; (1) 느린 속도의 해외 경기회복, (2) 생산기지의 이전으로 인해서 낮아진 수출량과 환율의 상관관계, (3) 엔화 약세에도 불구하고 수출 상츔 가격을 인하하지 않은 기업들 (4) 전지기계 등 일부 부문에서 무역 적자 증대

레드 페이퍼 full 리포트를 원하시면 로그인후 다운로드 하시기 바랍니다.

For the first time ANREV is collecting quarterly data, compared to bi-annual data collection of quarterly data previously.

Data contributions were received from 92 funds with a total gross asset value of US$83.3 billion. The All Asia Index headline return was 2.1% in local currency for Q1 2014 compared with 2.6% in Q4 2013.

Further detail of the sub-indices which cover fund style and various geographies can be found in the full report.

We would like to thank all the companies that supported the data collection exercise and look forward to your continued support in the next round of data collection in July.

To participate in the ANREV Index, please contact Amélie Delaunay at [email protected] or Henry Lam at [email protected] to take part in this industry-led initiative or if you have any questions about the ANREV Index.

Global Real Estate Fund Index (GREFI) shows the performance of non-listed real estate funds on a global scale and is created by ANREV, INREV and NCREIF. This publication includes the performance figures up to Q1 2014.

The GREFI consists of 372 funds in Q1 2014. The total gross asset value of all funds is $460.8 billion.

Please send your feedback on this consultation release to [email protected].

The document is a distillation of information provided to ANREV by non-listed property vehicles, as well as publicly available information of other non-listed property vehicles, in order to give a view on the size and composition of the Asia Pacific non-listed property funds market over a particular period of time.

If you have any questions, please contact Henry Lam at [email protected]

Red Paper - July 2014 - CHINA OFFICE PIPELINE AND DYNAMICS COMING WAVE OF SUPPLY …NOT AS BAD AS IT LOOKS

The Chinese office market is entering into a period of unprecedented supply over the next three years. There is
a 25.6 million sq m pipeline planned for completion between 2014 and 2016. This is triple the 8.2 million sq m
supply which came on stream between 2011 and 2013.

This report is authored by Andrew Ness, Dennis Fung and Kenneth Chiu from DTZ. 

マクロ経済 成長率見通しの下方修正が相次ぐ

• 2014 年3 月10 日に発表された2013 年10-12 月期の実質GDP 成長率（2 次速報）は年率+0.7%（季節調整済み前期比）となった。これは事前の予想を下回るものであったため、2013 年及び2014 年のGDP 成長率見通しを下方修正する調査機関が相次いでいる。
• 10-12 月期実質GDP の寄与度をみると、内需は+0.7%と概ね予想通りであったのに対し、外需は-0.5%と、7-9 月期に続きマイナスとなっている。民間企業設備投資が前期比年率+3.0%、民間最終消費支出が同+1.6%となるなど、国内需要は事前の予想通り改善傾向を示している。
• 今回、予想外だったのは外需の弱さであった。財貨・サービスの輸出は+1.7%とプラスに転じたものの力強さにかけ、一方で輸入は+14.7%と大幅に増加した。円安傾向となって1 年ほど経過したにもかかわらず、輸出が伸び悩んでいる点が懸念されるが、これに関しては、①海外経済の回復ペースが鈍いこと、②生産拠点の海外移転が進み、輸出数量の為替感応度が低減している可能性、③円安が進む中でも、企業が輸出価格を引き下げていない可能性、④電気機械部門などの一部セクターにおいて貿易赤字が拡大しているため、などの理由が考えられている。

MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS

A SUCCESSION OF DOWNWARD REVISIONS TO THE PROJECTED ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE
• The real GDP growth rate for October-December 2013 (second preliminary figures), announced March 10, 2014,
was an annualized rate of 0.7% (QoQ, seasonally adjusted). Since this was lower than previous expectations, a
succession of research institutions have revised downward their projected GDP growth rates for 2013 and 2014.
• A look at contributors to real GDP in October-December shows that while domestic demand largely met
expectations with growth of +0.7%, foreign demand showed negative growth, as it had in July-September, at
-0.5%. As had been expected, domestic demand showed an improving trend. For example, capital investment by
private firms grew by +5.3% (QoQ, annualized rate) and private final consumption expenditure by +2.0% (QoQ,
annualized rate).
• An unexpected component of this quarter’s figures was the weakness of foreign demand. Although exports of
goods and services rebounded to show positive growth at +1.7%, they were lacking in terms of strength, and in
contrast imports grew substantially at +14.7%. Despite the fact that the downward trend in the yen has continued
for about one year, there are concerns about the weak growth in exports. Possible reasons for this include (i)
the slow pace of economic recovery overseas, (ii) the possibility of decreased sensitivity of export volumes to
exchange rates as the shift of production facilities overseas advances, (iii) the possibility that companies are not
lowering export prices despite the growing devaluation of the yen, and (iv) increasing trade deficits in some
sectors, such as electrical machinery.

This report is authored by Yuki Hatano from Kenedix.